Here in the Cheap Seats it's either feast or famine, and today's legislative buffet is so loaded that I've spent the majority of the day just trying to organize it, understand and it and pick out the highlights for tomorrow's press run.

At the bottom line, the political situation remains muddy. Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and his compatriots in the Senate still haven't come together on a course of action. The split remains over a gas tax. Senators tell me there aren't 21 votes for a gas tax hike, sought by Democratic leaders in the Senate, nor are their 21 votes for Kaine's taxes and fees.

On the House side, a number of legislators say there might be 51 votes for some kind of gas tax hike, depending on the fine details of the proposal, with Democrats peeling off a handful of vulnerable Northern Virginia Republicans. That has House leaders leery of taking any action that could force a floor vote on the gas tax.

Will it happen? It's just flat out hard to say right now. There's a ton of pressure on legislators to do something about roads, but voting to make $4 per gallon gasoline even more expensive is a sure political loser, something Kaine acknowledged in his own transportation package.

Other highlights from the square today include:

• Offshore drilling is probably dead for the session.
The Senate Agriculture, Conservation and Natural Resources Committee voted along party lines to kill two bills that would have opened Virginia offshore oil drilling.

Democrats on the committee said they had environmental concerns about the legislation.

Republicans on the panel said the commonwealth could have seen some $200 million per year for transportation and environmental initiatives from royalties paid by oil companies if their bills had passed and Congress had given the OK.

• Some constitutional "lock boxes" also bit the dust on Tuesday, and the GOP is decidedly unhappy about it. From a Republican press release:

Senate Democrats this afternoon killed a measure designed to ensure that funds raised by regional levies be spent exclusively in those regions. Senator Creigh Deeds (D - Bath) led enough Democrats on the Privileges and Elections Committee to defeat the measure proposed by Senator Ken Stolle (R - Virginia Beach). It failed by a single vote despite unanimous Republican support.

Stolle's measure would have begun the process of adopting a constitutional amendment that would establish a so-called "lock box" for regional transportation funds. Without it, those funds could be diverted to other purposes or to other parts of the Commonwealth and Democrats on the committee expressed interest in preserving that option.

"Without this constitutional protection, taxpayers have no assurance that the measures we pass will do what we say they will do. This vote today does a great disservice to those who want to find solutions to our transportation challenges," said Stolle.

• Deeds, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, has waded in with a proposal that would encourage telecommuting. From the press release::

"We simply can't pave our way out of this traffic gridlock," said Deeds. "That's why I believe it is imperative that we address our transportation needs from the demand side of the equation as well. This tax credit package provides real incentives for Virginia businesses and their employees to get commuters off the road during rush hour."

Senate Bill 6012 provides a flextime income tax credit to employers for employees who enter into a flextime scheduling agreement, meaning they work a four-day workweek or begin their day between 6AM and 9AM. Under the legislation, employers are eligible for up to $25,000 per year in credits.

Senate Bill 6013 provides a tax credit to Virginia businesses for telecommuting expenditures and allows for a 100 percent tax credit for employers to conduct a telecommuting assessment the year prior to implementing a telecommuting program. Employers are eligible for a $1,200 credit per employee, capped at $20,000 per year.

There was an awful lot of heat but very little light during Monday's session.

Briefly, here's the lay of the land as both sides explain it to me. Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine wants legislators to do something to address an endemic shortage of road and rail funding made worse by the slowing economy.

But he's having trouble getting backing for his plan, which calls for various fees and taxes to be hiked statewide and in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. He's at sea with his own caucus in the Senate, though, and can't find a sponsor to carry his plan through the legislative process.

Senate Democrats want a gas tax or some other kind of levy. House and Senate Republicans don't want to raise taxes of any kind, and are somewhat resentful of the fact that they've been brought back to Richmond with no specific plan of action to deal with. They think Kaine is just angling for a way to paint Republicans as "do nothings" to pave the way for Democrats to take over the House in 2009.

It's a lot of posturing, according to Del. Todd Gilbert, R-Woodstock. (Yes, I know the video is a touch askew, but I'm my own camera guy and this is free video. Plus, you didn't have to drive to Richmond to see it. So don't complain.)

Del. Clay Athey, R-Front Royal, assess the situation, despite being victimized by poor camera work.

Here's Kaine's speech to a joint session today.




Here's the Republican response, featuring Sen. Jill Holtzman Vogel, R-Upperville.

2:45 -- The Senate has adjourned as well. That's about all the "live" stuff from here, but watch the blog later for some video interviews with valley legislators.

2:18 -- House is out, will be back tomorrow at 11 a.m.

1:51 -- The Senate has taken a break to hear an explanation of three bills Senators have introduced, while the House is making speeches. We'll have highlights in tomorrow's print edition.

1:31 --  And we're out. Not sure what's on the agenda after the applause, but the Governor is done speaking.

1:30 -- Kaine: "Do we want to solve this problem?  I sense that the willingness is there to do it.  We all come here to serve, but the reality is that other concerns begin to intrude--concerns about electoral or caucus politics, concerns that willingness to compromise might be frowned on or interpreted as weakness.  If we let our actions be dictated by the insular concerns of Capitol Square, the problem could well be evaded until infinity.  But, let's fit our actions to the standards that prevail outside Capitol Square--the standards of our citizens who send us here to solve problems and get things done."

1:26 --  Kaine: "So, while we can all agree that a culture of continuous improvement must be the goal, the notion that we can kick VDOT as the all-purpose excuse to do nothing is transparent and irresponsible."

1:23 -- Kaine lays out the plan, defends VDOT, noting that the agency has had eight audits since 2001.

1:16 --  Kaine: "Virginians are responsible people. They don't demand a free lunch. Our constituents are open to a reasonable, moderate plan to raise the revenues we need. They appreciate the economic stimulus that road and rail construction can bring."

1:09 -- More remarks about the maintenance deficit and its impact on commuters, the economy.

1:03 -- Kaine: "Let me tell you something that everyone in the chamber already knows. Citizens and businesses believe that our current transportation network isn't meeting their needs. They are correct. They also expect us to do something about it."

1:02 -- Gov. Kaine has arrived. Speech to follow.

12:53 -- Jim Hoeft and the guys from Bearing Drift are here watching and blogging the legislative frivolity, too. The Senate is headed to the House chamber for Kaine's aforementioned speech.

12:45 -- Del. Bobby Orrock, R-Thornburg , is on the floor of the House exhorting his colleagues to revive  House Bill 3202 of 2007, and oppose a tax increase. "I don't see where things have changed so drastically ... from what we did a year ago to have this 'sky is falling' mentality," he said.

12:38 -- While we're waiting on Kaine, it's worth noting Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell's call for an independent audit of VDOT here.

12:36 -- Still waiting on Kaine to speak to a joint session, but in the meantime the Senate is passing recognitions for legislative employees. Kaine press secretary Gordon Hickey just dropped off the text of the Kaine's speech. It's embargoed until he delivers it, but I can tell you it's four pages, front and back.

12:14 -- Procedural start-up in both chambers is almost done. Committees from both chambers are off to inform Gov. Kaine that they're in the chamber and ready to work. In the meantime, the legislators are just kind of hanging out and talking.

12:08 -- The Senate is up and running.

12:05 -- And we've got our first procedural dust up. Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, is dueling with Del. Bob Brink, D-Arlington, over a controversial rules change from last session that lets the GOP leadership force controversial measures to the floor for a vote.

12:02 -- We're off and running in the House of Delegates.

Greetings from the press dungeon of the General Assembly Building on Capitol Square. The press corps, legislators, lobbyists and protesters have all arrived and are ready for the session, at least in theory.

There are no committee meetings scheduled for today, and only a handful of bills have made it into the hopper at the base of the marble staircase here at the GAB. Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine will apparently address the legislators at 1 p.m.

Watch this space for updates as the session rolls on!

 

Legislators, advocators and agitators (along with a fair number of media) are rolling back to the River City on Monday for the third legislative session this year. This time, it's all about transportation.

So what will we see on Capitol Square? At this point, it's hard to say. There's no over-arching plan being floated by the legislative leadership. Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has a plan, but the House of Delegates has said it's dead on arrival.

They'd much rather see the legislature revive House Bill 3202, which was killed by the Virginia Supreme Court. But that's a non-starter for the Democratically-controlled Senate, where Majority Leader Dick Saslaw, D-Springfield, has said he'd like to see a gas tax hike.

But that's a non-starter for the GOP in the House and Gov. Kaine, who acknowledged last week the political realities of making $4 per gallon gas more expensive.

There are some wild cards, though.

Legislation from Del. Chris Saxsman, R-Staunton, dedicates the royalties from any offshore oil drilling in the commonwealth's waters to roads and rail. Del. Glenn Oder, R-Newport News, wants an independent audit of VDOT to see where all that money is going. House Appropriations Committee Chairman Lacey E. Putney, I-Bedford, has proposed a 1 percent statewide sales tax increase, to be voted up or down in a November referendum.

Cheap Seats One is loaded with Dr. Enuf, the satellite radio and about $50 in gas. See you on the square.

It seems like you can't swing a dead caribou around the Cheap Seats today without hitting a press release related to oil and gas prices.

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., started the ball rolling yesterday with his "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less" campaign. Republican politicos at all levels have grabbed the six-word mantra with both hands.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Jim Gilmore picked up the theme quickly, and promptly used it to smack Democratic candidate Mark Warner upside the head.

"Drill here, drill now, and pay less. This is our path to quickly reduce our dependence on foreign oil and lower prices," Gilmore said.

"We currently only explore about 15 percent of our nation's coastline for oil and gas. Recent studies estimate that about 86 billion barrels of untapped oil exist in federally restricted areas, Virginia's coastline being one of them," Gilmore said. "Yet, when Mark Warner was governor of Virginia, he vetoed legislation in support of lifting the federal moratorium on offshore drilling."

Not to be out-done, Warner fired off his own plan today.

"We have it in our power right now to fundamentally change how we power our country and our economy -- to break our addiction to foreign oil -- and to create a nation that is more secure and more prosperous," Warner said. "It is time that we reach for a bipartisan consensus on a real set of solutions, and get busy developing a sound U.S. energy strategy for this century and the next."

Some of Warner's ideas from the press release:

•    Working cooperatively with U.S. automakers to raise fuel efficiency standards to at least 40 miles-per-gallon;

•    Working with the petroleum industry to upgrade and expand domestic refining capacity, which has not markedly increased in this country in more than 30 years;

•    Supporting responsible limits on carbon emissions, commonly called "cap-and-trade" proposals, a concept that's supported by both major presidential candidates;

•    Significantly increasing research and development on alternative energy technology, including solar, wind, bio-fuels (not corn-based ethanol), nuclear, "clean-coal", batteries, "smart grid" technology, and other clean energy sources;

Gilmore noted the distinct lack of '"drilling" in Warner's list of ideas.

"Mark Warner is saying the same things that everyone else in Washington has said for the last 20 years," he said. "That is how we got where we are."

 "Mark Warner says he wants to 'wean' Americans off of oil He agrees with the liberal special interest groups that want to drive up gasoline prices and force Americans out of their cars," Gilmore said. 

"Alternative sources of energy are important and we must push them aggressively but they are not going to solve the problems of the average Virginia worker who has to drive 20 or 30 miles every day to work."

Meanwhile, back in Richmond, legislators were preparing for a special session on transportation. And some have legislation that would weld the two issues together.

Sen. Frank Wagner, R-Virginia Beach, held a press conference on Wednesday, calling for Gov. Tim Kaine to use his "considerable influence in national Democratic politics" to seek an end to the federal ban on off-shore drilling.

Wagner also said Virginia could drill its way toward better roads -- earmarking any royalties from offshore drilling to the Transportation Trust Fund.

"'Drill here, drill now, pay less' is more than a slogan. It is a formula for a long range solution to rising gasoline costs and to our dependence on foreign oil. Here in Virginia it can be a source of revenue for our growing transportation needs," Wagner said.

Next week is going to be interesting.

Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine was in Winchester today, speaking to the Top of Virginia Regional Chamber of Commerce about his vision for transportation.

You'll find a full story on the visit in Friday's print edition and on our main web site. But here's a snippet of the press gaggle Kaine conducted after his question and answer session.

8:55 p.m. -- That looks like a wrap on this end. Wolf and Feder are moving on. We'll have a full rundown on the web site and in the print edition tomorrow morning chock full of details about turnout, comments from the contenders and leading indicators for November.

Thanks for staying with us and reading the blog. Good night from the Cheap Seats.

8:51 p.m. -- The AP in Richmond has called the race for Feder.

8:46 p.m. -- If Turner is going to close the gap, he needs to do it quickly. Most of Loudoun County has reported. Turner is ahead there, but only by 10 votes. Fairfax county remains out for the most part, but Feder has won the early precincts there by large margins.

8:16 p.m. -- Results are starting to roll in to Cheap Seats HQ, and Wolf is walking away with it. The 10-to-1 margin over McKinley is holding up in all quarters with 58 percent of the vote tallied. Feder-Turner remains much closer at a consistent 60 percent to 40 percent margin, but on a lower turnout.

8:02 p.m. -- Frederick County is a done deal, Wolf over McKinley 93 percent to 7 percent, Feder over Turner, 58 percent to 41 percent. Loudoun County Democratic numbers are starting to trickle in, with an early Loudoun lead for Turner. Still no GOP numbers from the land of Loudoun.

7:57 p.m. -- Frederick County, where most of the votes west of the Blue Ridge reside, is reporting the bulk of its precincts. Wolf is still beating McKinley by a 93 percent to 7 percent margin here, but Feder's margin in the county is down to 60 percent versus 40 percent.

Still waiting on Loudoun County and it's 161,000 registered voters.

7:40 p.m.-- The city of Winchester is a done deal. Wolf wins 85 percent to 15 percent, while Feder beats Turner 53 percent to 47 percent. Still no word from Loudoun County.

7:36 p.m. -- Perhaps we spoke too soon. McKinley is picking up much bigger margins in Winchester, Manassas Park and Warren County, pushing the overall totals to 89 percent to 11 percent for Wolf with 9 percent reporting. Still a long way to go, but better than 95-5.

7:28 p.m. -- With 6 percent of precincts reporting, Wolf is up big time over challenger Vern McKinley, 95 percent to 5 percent. If the margin doesn't start breaking the other way soon, Team McKinley is going to have a long, long night.

Meanwhile, over on the Democratic side, Judy Feder is pulling what looks like a consistent 2-to-1 over Mike Turner with just under 7 percent reporting. Still waiting on the 800 lb. gorilla of the district, Loudoun County, to report.

7:19 p.m. -- Another round of "refresh" and we've got GOP numbers. Frank Wolf is on a roll in Winchester and Fauquier County, 95 percent to 4 percent.

7:14 p.m. -- We have numbers! With one precinct reporting in Fauquier County, Feder jumps out to a  24-7 lead. And we all click "refresh" yet again...

7:00 p.m. -- The polls are closed, the election jersey has been donned. Let the obsessive screen refreshing commence.

6:40 p.m. --  No, we don't have any results yet, but the folks at Reason Magazine have noticed Virginia's primaries. Apparently South Carolina is also conducting a Republican primary, with a candidate nicknamed by some "The Spoon." That's a Cheap Seats-level nickname if I've ever heard one...

6:25 p.m. -- Polls close in 35 minutes, almost game time. Campaign operatives and party activists are no doubt preparing to head over to the State Board of Elections web site and click refresh. Repeatedly.

Republicans can click obsessively here, Democrats here.

4:58 p.m. -- The hail in Loudoun was pea sized and lasted for more than 10 minutes and has one precinct running on back-up power, according to our Cheap Seats watchers on the ground.

This leads to an interesting question, posed earlier today by Ben Tribbett at Not Larry Sabato: "Which candidate has voters that will vote in a hailstorm for them?" Post-election finance reports might bear checking for expenditures with this company.

4:38 p.m. - Will the weather be a factor? I checked with election officials in both Winchester and Warren County and heard that turnout was about what was expected -- a little higher in the case of Winchester.

But that was before some really nasty weather came rolling through. Find 10th District radar from the National Weather Service here.

A reliable Cheap Seats informant reported hail in Loudoun County, and thunderstorm complex just rolled through Strasburg and Winchester in the past 30 minutes dropping nickel-sized hail. Primary voters are motivated types, but it kind of makes you wonder if chunks of ice falling from the sky in conjunction with lightning might dampen their ardor just a bit...

3:50 p.m. - I'm hearing from just about all quarters that turnout in the 10th District is exceedingly light. Riley at Virginia Virtucon reports much of the same, as do various commenters at Too Conservative.
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It's congressional primary day in Virginia, and from what we're hearing, voters are headed to the polls by the tens. Turnout is light to say the least, according to our sources.

But today's contests are important, as they'll set the slate for November's general election tilt. Join us here at Cheap Seats HQ as we watch the returns come in from across the district. Thrill at the rapid pace of Frederick County's tally, cry as Loudoun County's numbers go missing for hours at a time...

We're already going through the election night check list...

Election night jersey? Check.
Faux Australian military slouch hat from Wal-Mart? Check.
Moderately-priced cigar for post-coverage smoke? Check.

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.,  was in Bristol this morning to start his general election campaign. Republicans didn't let the visit pass unchallenged, sending Attorney General Bob McDonnell out for rebuttal duty.

Find highlights from the visit and the call in a podcast here.

Presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama is coming to Virginia this week, with one stop in my old stomping grounds, Bristol, and another at Nissan Pavilion later in the day.

[Note: I say "presumptive" because, as one of my editors has pointed out, Obama won't be nominated until the convention in Denver, and there's always the minuscule probability that the team of super delegates that pushed him over the "magic number" could change their minds. Probably won't happen, but hey, you never know, and they don't pay me to predict the future.]

It's hard not to give Team Obama full marks for hitting the two areas of the state they'll need to carry Virginia's 13 electoral votes. If they use Democratic Gov. Mark Warner's playbook, the strategy is to rack up huge margins in Northern Virginia and not get annihilated in places like Southwest Virginia, the Shenandoah Valley, Richmond and Virginia Beach.

Not a group to let a high profile visit go unchallenged, Del. Chris Saxman, R-Staunton, and former Republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, co-chair's of Sen. John McCain's Virginia effort, held a media conference call today.

Jim Hoeft over at Bearing Drift was also on the call, and wraps up the high points nicely here.

The upshot was simple: Obama has charisma, but on the issues he's likely to prove toxic to Virginia voters. When Govs. Warner and Tim Kaine ran, they had to run toward the right on things like taxes and make a decidedly conservative appeal on issues like guns.

That's a problem for Obama, according to Kilgore and Saxman, because Obama has already run afoul of the Second Amendment and has said he'd raise taxes on, among other things, capital gains. Starting off in Southwest, which has sent a Democrat to Congress since I was 4 years old, looks like a good idea on paper, according to Team McCain, but could well blow up in his face.

There could be some truth in that. Virginia is hardly monolithic. Somewhere on Interstate 66 between Strasburg and Haymarket, a major change takes place. The urban Northern Virginia demographic that would be more inclined to vote for Obama becomes the Southern Appalachian demographic that voted for Clinton in the primary but trends red Republican during general elections.

Obama will undoubtedly draw huge crowds in Nissan, but the stop in Bristol could tell the tale for the whole campaign.

Sometimes I don't even know why I pick up the phone here at Cheap Seats HQ anymore. Rest assured, there won't be a live human on the other end when I pick it up.

Such was the case again late Tuesday, when the phone rang. "Hello, this is Congressman Bob Goodlatte," Rep. Goodlatte's recorded voice said cheerily on the other end. Recorded politicians have been in short supply since my encounter with RoboGilmore, so I decided to hold the line and see what would develop.

The short answer is an opinion poll, voiced by the congressman himself. Since I do live in the 6th District, I decided to hang in there and answer a few questions, which ranged from things like "What's the biggest problem facing America?" to "Who are you going to vote for in November?"

Unlike RoboGilmore's call, RoboGoodlatte asked me to press buttons to respond. But the call had much of the same effect -- it did feel almost like I was having a conversation with a politician who cared about my input.

Given the relatively low cost of reaching out and touching someone via robocall, that could well be a good way to reach a lot of voters spread out over a district that runs from Roanoke to Strasburg.

The fight between former Gov. Jim Gilmore and Del. Bob Marshal, R-Manassas, went down to the wire over the weekend, with the former Governor eking out a win over the outspoken legislator.

But among Virginia's electronic chattering class, the biggest news of the day was the win by Del. Jeff Frederick, R-Woodbridge, over former Lt. Gov. John Hager for the chairmanship of the party.

Black Velvet Bruce Li sees change afoot.
Too Conservative sees a nothing but a modern take on "Heart of Darkness."
Not Larry Sabato sees a pickup in the House of Delegates for Democrats.

What does it all mean? From here in the Cheap Seats, it looks like that wave of discontent inside the Virginia GOP that really started rolling in 2004 might have just come to a head.

Ever since the House and Senate Republicans split over Democratic Gov. Mark R. Warner's $1.5 billion tax hike, there's been a rift between the two wings of the part that hasn't healed.

One side, marked by legislators like the now retired Sens. H. Russell Potts Jr., R-Winchester, and John Chichester, R-Fredericksburg, was far more apt to reach across the aisle (and depending on whom you ask, sit down and get comfortable there). The other, led by Republicans like Del. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, the House majority leader, thought the Senate had compromised too much.

The split between the two wings of the party was particularly evident after a string of GOP losses: Jerry Kilgore's gubernatorial loss in 2005, Sen. George Allen's loss in 2006 and the loss of the Virginia Senate in 2007.  As an editor once told me, "three is a trend."

GOPers from the rank and file to legislators have told me repeatedly that something had to change or the the party was on its way to minority status again. Part of that change took place between November and January, when the now minority GOP Senate caucus took their House counterparts firmly by the hand and started singing from the same hymnal.

Were the weekend votes more of the change Republican said they needed? Quite possibly. Will it have the desire effect? Ask me in November.

One of the dangers of being a one-man blog operation is the fact that when you're out, the whole operation is out. But the Cheap Seats have been empty for good reason. In addition to other projects, the entire family went to D.C. on Memorial Day.

If you've never taken the time to visit Washington, there is no better time than on Memorial Day. Even a simple, self-guided walking tour can be a poignant experience. A lone bugler on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial playing taps is truly something to behold.

So before we plow on into matters political once more, some of the sights...