Presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama is coming to Virginia this week, with one stop in my old stomping grounds, Bristol, and another at Nissan Pavilion later in the day.
[Note: I say "presumptive" because, as one of my editors has pointed out, Obama won't be nominated until the convention in Denver, and there's always the minuscule probability that the team of super delegates that pushed him over the "magic number" could change their minds. Probably won't happen, but hey, you never know, and they don't pay me to predict the future.]
It's hard not to give Team Obama full marks for hitting the two areas of the state they'll need to carry Virginia's 13 electoral votes. If they use Democratic Gov. Mark Warner's playbook, the strategy is to rack up huge margins in Northern Virginia and not get annihilated in places like Southwest Virginia, the Shenandoah Valley, Richmond and Virginia Beach.
Not a group to let a high profile visit go unchallenged, Del. Chris Saxman, R-Staunton, and former Republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, co-chair's of Sen. John McCain's Virginia effort, held a media conference call today.
Jim Hoeft over at Bearing Drift was also on the call, and wraps up the high points nicely here.
The upshot was simple: Obama has charisma, but on the issues he's likely to prove toxic to Virginia voters. When Govs. Warner and Tim Kaine ran, they had to run toward the right on things like taxes and make a decidedly conservative appeal on issues like guns.
That's a problem for Obama, according to Kilgore and Saxman, because Obama has already run afoul of the Second Amendment and has said he'd raise taxes on, among other things, capital gains. Starting off in Southwest, which has sent a Democrat to Congress since I was 4 years old, looks like a good idea on paper, according to Team McCain, but could well blow up in his face.
There could be some truth in that. Virginia is hardly monolithic. Somewhere on Interstate 66 between Strasburg and Haymarket, a major change takes place. The urban Northern Virginia demographic that would be more inclined to vote for Obama becomes the Southern Appalachian demographic that voted for Clinton in the primary but trends red Republican during general elections.
Obama will undoubtedly draw huge crowds in Nissan, but the stop in Bristol could tell the tale for the whole campaign.
[Note: I say "presumptive" because, as one of my editors has pointed out, Obama won't be nominated until the convention in Denver, and there's always the minuscule probability that the team of super delegates that pushed him over the "magic number" could change their minds. Probably won't happen, but hey, you never know, and they don't pay me to predict the future.]
It's hard not to give Team Obama full marks for hitting the two areas of the state they'll need to carry Virginia's 13 electoral votes. If they use Democratic Gov. Mark Warner's playbook, the strategy is to rack up huge margins in Northern Virginia and not get annihilated in places like Southwest Virginia, the Shenandoah Valley, Richmond and Virginia Beach.
Not a group to let a high profile visit go unchallenged, Del. Chris Saxman, R-Staunton, and former Republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, co-chair's of Sen. John McCain's Virginia effort, held a media conference call today.
Jim Hoeft over at Bearing Drift was also on the call, and wraps up the high points nicely here.
The upshot was simple: Obama has charisma, but on the issues he's likely to prove toxic to Virginia voters. When Govs. Warner and Tim Kaine ran, they had to run toward the right on things like taxes and make a decidedly conservative appeal on issues like guns.
That's a problem for Obama, according to Kilgore and Saxman, because Obama has already run afoul of the Second Amendment and has said he'd raise taxes on, among other things, capital gains. Starting off in Southwest, which has sent a Democrat to Congress since I was 4 years old, looks like a good idea on paper, according to Team McCain, but could well blow up in his face.
There could be some truth in that. Virginia is hardly monolithic. Somewhere on Interstate 66 between Strasburg and Haymarket, a major change takes place. The urban Northern Virginia demographic that would be more inclined to vote for Obama becomes the Southern Appalachian demographic that voted for Clinton in the primary but trends red Republican during general elections.
Obama will undoubtedly draw huge crowds in Nissan, but the stop in Bristol could tell the tale for the whole campaign.
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