GOP, voters hold ace in health care reform

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By Garren Shipley -- gshipley@nvdaily.com

Saturday's health care reform vote in the House of Representatives may well have been the first shots in the 2010 election.

The bill, which passed 220-215 late Saturday, would create among other things a new public health insurance program to compete with private insurance companies.

Republicans wasted no time going after vulnerable Democrats who supported the bill, including Rep. Tom Perriello, D-5th.

Perriello knocked off longtime GOP Rep. Virgil Goode last year partly on the strength of President Obama's performance in his district, which stretches from north of Charlottesville south to Danville.

But while Obama lost in the 5th District by 2.3 percentage points in 2008, the GOP posted a 23-point blowout in the gubernatorial election last week.

"Though I was unsatisfied with the original bill, I've been working hard to get to 'yes' because the status quo is simply unsustainable and unacceptable, and we must do more to bring down costs for middle-class families and businesses without increasing the federal deficit," he said in a statement after the vote.

Not to be outdone, Democrats turned their fire on two Old Dominion Republicans who voted against the bill -- Reps. Frank Wolf, R-10th, and Randy Forbes, R-4th.

Obama carried both districts last year, including Wolf's by 6 points.

"Despite the call for change voiced by his constituents last November, Rep. Wolf chose to stand with the insurance industry lobbyists and the Republican Party of No to vote against the historic health insurance reform legislation passed by the House of Representatives last Saturday," says Democratic National Committee spokesman Alec Gerlach in a statement.

"This is exactly the kind of change that voters called for last November," he said.

Republicans won both districts last week in blowouts -- by no less than 20 points.

For Democrats in Virginia, getting some form of health care passed that includes a government-run plan for the general public may be a matter of electoral survival, according to a pre-election poll by Public Policy Polling.

"The mere specter of a health care bill has gotten Republicans fired up to go vote next year and they're going to do it whether one passes or not," said Tom Jensen, of Public Policy Polling.

"But Democrats might stay at home, like they did this year, without one," he wrote. "Democratic voters need to see that getting control of Washington accomplished something for them to be motivated to get out there next year and keep control of Washington."

Some 89 percent of likely Republican voters for last week's election said they would support a GOP candidate if Congress did nothing on health care, compared to 88 percent who said they would vote Republican if a public option passed.

Democrats lose a significant chunk of their base if Congress fails to pass a "public option" plan.

Some 85 percent said they would vote for a Democrat on the 2010 ballot if such a plan passes, but only 79 percent said they would if Congress does not act on health care.

The difference is particularly stark in Northern Virginia, where the congressional ballot goes from a 4-percentage-point Republican win without congressional action to 2-point Democratic win, 46 percent to 44 percent, if a bill is approved.

The health care bill now moves to the U.S. Senate.