South Carolina upset

The aura of inevitability the Mitt Romney campaign has cultivated lies in smithereens after Newt Gingrich trounced him in the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday.

That image, based on the former Massachusetts governor's slim victory in the Iowa caucuses and his convincing win in neighboring New Hampshire, was dented last week when a recount gave former Sen. Rick Santorum the victory in Iowa.

But Romney's status as front-runner was jeopardized by Gingrich's 12-point win in South Carolina. The former House speaker forged a coalition of groups -- evangelical Christians, Tea Party supporters and voters who call themselves "very conservative" -- that have been cool to Romney.

Gingrich capitalized on strong debate performances replete with denunciations of the news media and other "elites" to revive his campaign, which had been on the ropes after lackluster showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. His fiery rhetoric persuaded South Carolinians that he, rather than Romney, was the best choice to defeat President Obama.
That had been one of Romney's boasts, but Gingrich raised questions about his record at the private equity firm Bain Capital and Romney struggled with demands that he release his income tax returns. After backtracking on the issue, Romney announced that he would produce them today.

The Republican contest now moves to Florida, a big state more typical of the nation but with a significant Hispanic voting bloc and millions of retirees.

While Romney has built a significant organization there, Gingrich has momentum and two debates to showcase his strengths. Romney has begun to fight back, calling Gingrich "erratic" and demanding that he release documents related to his work for Freddie Mac and the ethics scandal that cost Gingrich his speakership.

The GOP campaign looks like a drawn-out slog between the establishment and insurgents.