Quantcast
nvdaily.com link to home page
Google
Web nvdaily.com
Home | Archive | Weather | Traffic
Subscribe | Guide to the Daily


Local Sports


comment Comment on this story | View Comments |

Friday, October 3, 2008

A look at investing in the forecasters

By Craig Juer — Daily Staff Writer

If you're an investor in these terrifyingly desperate economic times, the burden of making a decision on what to do with your money is likely gnawing at your conscience night and day.

You could hold on to your investments, and hope they rebound enough to recoup what you initially put in. You could sell, and get out while the getting is good. You could buy low, and try to eventually capitalize on the sorry state of affairs. Or, you could do what I do, and throw away your 401(k) statement without opening it.

But if I were the Jim Cramer of We're the Experts, I could tell you with the utmost certitude where to put your money and where to pull it out. The following is a rock-solid, can't-miss guide to investing in We're the Experts. So take that rainy-day stash out of your mattress, follow these hints closely, and try not to let your neighbors get their hands on this section.

Sell: Keeler, McGill

Sure, Tommy had a respectable outcome last week, going 11-9 and staying in a close second place. But Tommy loves his favorites, and shuns upset picks. Historically, this is a strong strategy. But times are changing. First, we saw parity begin to dominate the NFL, as teams shuffled their rosters so much to accommodate the salary cap, as revenue became more evenly distributed and as playbooks became more homogenized. Secondly, we saw college football, too, fall victim to parity. Teams can lose a game or two and still find themselves in a BCS bowl at the end of the year. FCS teams can upset FBS teams. Rutgers, Wake Forest, South Florida and Vanderbilt contend for conference titles these days. And now, with outcomes like "Handley over Sherando" and "Skyline over Millbrook," even the foregone conclusions of high school ball are turning against the so-called Experts. If you want to be the best at We're the Experts, you have to be willing to call some upsets, and to do it with accuracy.

On the surface, this would make Chuck a good candidate for buying. But look more closely — there's a reason he's languishing in the back of the pack at 62-38, on the heels of a 10-10 week (and an 8-12 showing the week prior). Chuck loves the underdogs, perhaps to a fault. Sure, you want to take some teams that aren't obvious picks, but if a lock is there, take it. Week 5 isn't a great example of this, since he and I had nearly identical picks, but look at Week 4: there were "gimmes" like Virginia Tech over UNC and the Redskins (at home) over Arizona, and he left them out there (and paid for it). I'm selling my stock in McGill until he eschews his admirable, but risky, affection for the Davids of the world.

Hold: Juer

I'd like to advertise buying stock in myself, but after following weeks of 13-7 and 16-4 with a 10-10 stinker, as an investor I'd take just a little while to see where I'm headed. What are my flaws? I pick too many games based on program reputation, and I procrastinate — meaning I usually make my picks in a hurry (in between typing in player stats and filing my regular Friday preview material). On the other hand, I'm the only staffer who has seen JMU this year, and I feel like I know Shenandoah as well as any "Expert" not named Tassa. Give me a week or two, then see where I'm heading.

Buy: Tassa

Tim has a habit when it comes to picking that can either be an Achilles' heel or an ace in the hole, depending on the year. Part of his strategy is that he never — ever! — picks against the Redskins. When the Redskins are bad, his burgundy-colored glasses hurt him. When the Redskins are good (which looks like it might be the case this year), it's an asset. Who other than a raving Redskins Kool-Aid drinker would have picked them against Dallas this past week? No one else on the staff did, and it cost us a win. So, as long as the 'Skins are on the way up, so is Tassa.

The other thing I like about Tassa is that he doesn't put much emphasis on program reputation. He seems to evaluate teams based on their own merit, rather than what they've done in the past. I think that's part of the reason he picked Skyline over Millbrook and Clarke over Riverheads when few others did. I'm buying 100 shares of Tassa Time Inc., and I suggest you follow my lead.

Without further ado, here are my picks of dubious merit. They are not as good as Tassa's.

Handley at Skyline

I love Skyline's ability to get the ball into the hands of Andrew Thorne, and that's why I think the Hawks stay with the Judges. I think Heath Gilbert, sensing a K.O. opportunity against a more seasoned team near the end of regulation, goes for two after the would-be tying touchdown. I think it fails.

Handley 28, Skyline 27

Madison County at Stonewall Jackson

I've been here long enough to know better than to bet against Dick Krol.

Stonewall Jackson 21, Madison County 14

James Wood at Warren County

Haven't seen the Colonels yet, but I didn't like what I saw when the Wildcats visited Sherando. They weren't quick off the ball, or aggressive at the point of attack, and as a result were at a disadvantaged in almost every play.

James Wood 38, Warren County 7

Luray at Strasburg

If Strasburg loses this game, I will buy two Millson Dogs and share one with the first person who brings it up to me next time I'm at Ram Stadium.

Strasburg 20, Luray 17

Page County at Clarke County

I haven't figured out Clarke County at all yet (I'm due to see them next week for the first time), but I do know this: the Eagles will get at least one safety in this game. That's a promise.

Clarke County 23, Page 10

Central at Sherando

The Warriors will be mad as hell this week after losing to Handley, and the Fightin's are the poor fools unlucky enough to be standing in the way.

Sherando 48, Central 7

Hofstra at JMU

The Dukes are No. 1! They will hold on to this designation for at least a week. They'll start slow, however, and Mickey Matthews will call the first quarter "a field-position nightmare" in the postgame press conference.

JMU 35, Hofstra 13

Western Kentucky at Virginia Tech

Ugh.

Virginia Tech 28, Western Kentucky 6

Maryland at Virginia

The 'Hoos can't get Ross Metheny in Charlottesville fast enough.

Maryland 34, Virginia 9

Redskins at Eagles

I personally guarantee this game goes into overtime.

Iggles 31, Redskins 28 (OT)

* Contact Craig Juer at cjuer@nvdaily.com


Post a comment






Read our comments policy

Reader comments: Sports

4 comments

Hornetfanx4 on November 13, 2008 11:59 PM wrote:

Sorry, but you must have been at a different volleyball game - There were plenty of Wilson Memorial fans there....

ATV-60 on November 7, 2008 6:54 AM wrote:

Excellent recap of the nights events. Keep up the great work !

M Waters on October 24, 2008 5:01 PM wrote:

Sherando over Brentsville
Millbrook over Central
James Wood over Skyline
Clarke County over Manassas Park
Buffalo Gap over Stonewall
Handley over Warren County
N.C. Wesleyan over Shenandoah
James Madison over Villanova
Florida State over Va. Tech
Ga. Tech over Va.
Kansas over Texas Tech
North Carolina over Boston College
Texas over Okalahoma State
Michigan State over Michigan
LSU over Ga.
Penn State over Ohio State
Cowboys over Buccaneers
Chargers over Saints
Giants over Steelers
Colts over Titans

Tstar on September 8, 2008 10:26 AM wrote:

Falcons bounce back, blank Rams in rivalry game.

Congratulations Central Falcons!!!






Register to comment and enter drawings.











Buy photos

Top Jobs

Trex Company, Inc. Process Technician...

arrow View all Top Jobs
-->








News | Sports | Business | Lifestyle | Obituaries | Opinion | Multimedia| Entertainment | Homes | Classified
Guide to the Daily: Advertise | Circulation | Contact Us | Commercial Printing | NIE | Place a Classified | Privacy Policy | Subscribe

Copyright © The Northern Virginia Daily | nvdaily.com | 152 N. Holliday St., Strasburg, Va. 22657 | (800) 296-5137

nvdaily.com
The best small daily newspaper in Virginia