The University of Virginia’s COVID-19 Model is predicting another peak in virus cases in late spring or early summer, largely aided by the variant first discovered in the United Kingdom.

“The timing and size of the peak depend on how well Virginians maintain prevention measures,” according to the UVA model’s latest weekly update.

As statewide coronavirus cases see a slow rise in some health districts, the UVA model states variant first identified in the United Kingdom is becoming the predominant strain in Virginia, as predicted.

“Because this variant has a higher growth rate and causes more severe disease, it is blunting the positive impacts of steadily increasing vaccination coverage,” the report states.

“To lessen the projected peak, we must give vaccines time to have an impact, especially as the B.1.1.7 variant becomes the predominant strain in Virginia,” the report states.

The model also shows that the number of health districts seeing slow growth in cases has nearly doubled from seven to 13 districts in the last week.

The Lord Fairfax Health District, which was among the six districts showing slow growth in the March 26 report, is still among the 13 this week.

On Monday, the health district added 35 new cases, 15 in Frederick County, 11 in Winchester, five in Shenandoah County, three in Clarke County and one in Warren County. Page County didn’t add any new cases.

Two local hospitalizations were added Monday, one in Winchester and one in Shenandoah.

Elsewhere in the region, Harrisonburg added four new cases and one hospitalization. Rockingham County added six cases.

Harrisonburg now has 6,236 cases, 180 hospitalizations and 95 deaths. Rockingham has 6,395 cases, 359 hospitalizations and 103 deaths.

Virginia added 1,023 new COVID-19 cases.

The Virginia Department of Health reports that 2,800,332 people (32.8% of the population) statewide have received at least one vaccine dose, an increase of 30,642, and 1,543,719 people (18.1%) have been fully vaccinated, an increase of 24,698.

The local health district reports that 64,474 people (or 26.9%), have received at least one vaccine dose, an increase of 3,477 from Friday, and that 42,365 (or 17.2%) are fully vaccinated, an increase of 1,062.

Winchester has reported 12,755 total doses, up 374 since Sunday, including 4,988 people fully vaccinated, an increase of 11 from Sunday.

Frederick reports 36,941 doses administered, up 560, and 15,341 people fully vaccinated, up 55.

Clarke reports 7,387 doses, up 131 and 3,134 fully vaccinated, up 12.

Shenandoah reports 20,698 doses, up 37, and 8,844 fully vaccinated, up 20.

Page reports 9,983 doses, up 103, and 4,176 fully vaccinated, up one.

Warren reports 13,374 doses, up 230, and 5,882 fully vaccinated, up 24.

Contact Josette Keelor at